erdogan jails rival imamoglu in political crackdown
with his biggest political rival behind bars, the turkish president is attempting to tighten his grip on power even further.
Turkey’s political landscape just took another authoritarian turn.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s strongest political rival, has been arrested, alongside over 100 others, on terrorism-related, corruption and organized crime charges.
With Turkey’s next presidential election not due until 2028, Erdogan appears to be clearing the field early, ensuring no credible opposition stands in his way.
eliminating the biggest threat
Imamoglu has never lost an election. And that’s exactly why Erdogan sees him as a threat. Both men come from the Black Sea region and have used Istanbul’s mayorship as a stepping stone to national power. Erdogan knows firsthand how a successful mayor can become president, because that’s exactly what he did in the 1990s.
After securing another presidential term in 2023, Erdogan set his sights on reclaiming Istanbul in the 2024 municipal elections. But Imamoglu, despite facing relentless legal and political challenges, won again, securing 51.14% of the vote and delivering Erdogan a humiliating defeat.
His arrest (coming just days before the CHP’s presidential primary, where Imamoglu was expected to be named the opposition’s candidate) reeks of political maneuvering.
revoking his degree (a convenient disqualification)
Adding insult to injury, Istanbul University suddenly decided to revoke Imamoglu’s degree, citing “nullity” and “clear error.” Under Turkish law, presidential candidates must hold a university degree. The timing is suspicious, to say the least. If Erdogan can’t eliminate Imamoglu through legal charges, blocking his candidacy on a technicality might just do the trick.
Erdogan is taking no chances this time, if Imamoglu can’t legally run, he can’t win.
outrage
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel didn’t mince words, calling Imamoglu’s arrest “a coup attempt against our next president.” He called for nationwide protests, and thousands have responded, taking to the streets despite government warnings.
Before his arrest, Imamoglu managed to record a video message from his home, calling the charges against him blatant injustice and vowing to continue the fight.
At the same time, the Turkish government has restricted access to social media platforms like X, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok, something they always do to control the narrative during politically sensitive moments.
what is erdogan’s endgame? A third term?
Turkey’s constitution limits presidents to two terms.
To stay in power, Erdogan has two options: amend the constitution or call early elections. A constitutional amendment would require a two-thirds majority in parliament, which is unlikely without opposition support. That leaves early elections as the more viable route.
If Erdogan calls an early vote, his second term would be incomplete, allowing him to argue that he’s eligible to run again.
But there’s one major problem.
If Imamoglu is on the ballot, Erdogan could lose. Hence, the urgency to eliminate him now.
Erdogan has already rewritten the political rulebook. The 2017 referendum granted him sweeping executive powers. Now, many fear he’s laying the groundwork for an indefinite hold on power.
markets have reacted… and it doesn’t look good
Turkey’s economy took an immediate hit. The Turkish lira dropped to an all-time low, losing up to 10% of its value against the dollar before stabilizing. The country’s stock index plunged by as much as 7%. Investors aren’t blind, they see the growing instability, and they’re pulling back.
will erdogan’s plan backfire?
Locking up your main rival doesn’t always work out as planned. Erdogan should know, he was arrested in 1999 by Turkey’s secular regime, and it only made him more popular. Imamoglu’s arrest could do the same, transforming him into a political martyr and galvanizing an already frustrated opposition and public.
The next few weeks will be crucial. If Erdogan succeeds in sidelining Imamoglu, Turkey’s transition into full authoritarianism will be complete. If the opposition fights back effectively, this could mark the beginning of Erdogan’s most serious challenge yet and maybe his eventual defeat.